Finance
14Markets, crypto, earnings, and the economy
Dow Falls Into Correction as Markets Now Price In a Fed Rate Hike
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 800 points Friday, entering correction territory as the Iran war reverberates through financial markets. In a dramatic shift, futures traders now put a 52% probability on the Fed's next move being a rate hike β not a cut β by end of 2026, as a global forecasting group raised its U.S. inflation forecast to 4.2%, far above the Fed's own 2.7% estimate. The combination of oil-shock-driven inflation and slowing growth is fueling the most serious stagflation fears since the 1970s.
SoftBank's $40B Loan from JPMorgan and Goldman Signals 2026 OpenAI IPO Is Coming
Wall Street giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are extending a 12-month, unsecured $40 billion loan to SoftBank β a structure analysts say is specifically designed to bridge the Japanese conglomerate to an OpenAI IPO later this year. The loan's one-year term and unsecured nature suggest lenders are betting on a major liquidity event from SoftBank's OpenAI stake within that window. An OpenAI public listing would be one of the largest and most consequential IPOs in tech history.
Rivian Gets Another $1B from Volkswagen as Joint EV Tech Venture Deepens
Volkswagen is injecting another $1 billion into Rivian as part of their ongoing joint venture, which aims to embed Rivian's software and EV architecture into VW's next generation of electric vehicles. The continued investment signals VW's confidence in Rivian's tech stack despite a challenging EV market, and gives the American startup a crucial lifeline amid broader industry headwinds. The deal is notable given Sony and Honda's recent abandonment of their own joint EV project.
Wholesale Prices Surge 0.7% in February, Stoking Stagflation Fears Amid Iran Oil Shock
US wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, far exceeding expectations and up 3.4% year-over-year, adding to fears that inflation is becoming entrenched even before the full impact of Iran war-driven energy prices is felt. The data comes as fourth-quarter GDP was already revised down to just 0.7% growth, a combination that is intensifying comparisons to 1970s-style stagflation. Economists warn the combination of slowing growth and rising prices leaves the Fed with very limited room to maneuver.
Elizabeth Warren Demands Full Economic Accounting of Iran War Costs
Senator Elizabeth Warren is demanding a full accounting of the economic costs of the Iran war, calling the conflict 'illegal and reckless' and warning that war spending is driving the national deficit past $1 trillion through February. Warren's escalating rhetoric reflects growing Democratic frustration that the war lacks congressional authorization and is crowding out domestic spending priorities. The senator has called for a formal economic impact report from the White House.
Wall Street Recession Fears Mount as Economy Shows Cracks
Economists on Wall Street are raising their recession probability estimates as geopolitical risks from the Iran war combine with a softening labor market and persistent inflation to cloud the US economic outlook. Wholesale prices rose 0.7% in February, well above expectations, while Q4 GDP was revised down to just 0.7% growth. With traders now pricing in near-zero chance of Fed rate cuts in 2026, analysts warn a sustained oil price shock could tip the economy toward contraction.
DOJ Had No Criminal Evidence Against Fed Chair Powell, Court Filing Reveals
A bombshell court filing has revealed that the Justice Department had no criminal evidence against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with an assistant US attorney acknowledging as much to a federal judge. The disclosure raises serious questions about the political motivations behind any investigation into the nation's top central banker. The revelation comes amid ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate policy.
UK Inflation Holds at 3% but Analysts Warn of 'Brutal' Surge Ahead
UK inflation remained steady at 3% in February according to the Office for National Statistics, but economists warn the reading is deceptively calm given the energy price shock from the Iran war still working its way through supply chains. Analysts caution that a "brutal" inflation surge could materialize in the coming months as higher oil and gas costs filter into consumer prices. The data complicates the Bank of England's path on interest rates.
White House Pays TotalEnergies $1 Billion to Cancel East Coast Wind Farm Projects
The White House announced it will pay French energy giant TotalEnergies $1 billion to abandon planned offshore wind farm projects along the US East Coast. The announcement comes as the Iran war disrupts global oil and gas supplies, making US LNG development a higher strategic priority for the administration. The move signals a sharp pivot away from renewable energy toward fossil fuel expansion.
Markets Rebound as Iran Talks Surface; ECB Warns of Deeply Uncertain Outlook
Global stocks and oil markets moved sharply on Monday after Trump's comments about Iran talks, with oil prices dropping and equities rallying in relief. The European Central Bank, which held rates steady last week, warned the Iran war has made the economic outlook 'significantly more uncertain,' threatening European energy supplies and growth. Stagflation fears continue to simmer, with wholesale prices having risen a sharper-than-expected 3.4% annually in February.
Trump's Section 301 China Trade Probe Escalates Ahead of Possible Beijing Summit
The Trump administration has launched a Section 301 trade probe into China, raising tariff stakes just weeks before a planned Beijing summit, which the president has signaled may be delayed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met his Chinese counterpart in Paris, with the US pressuring Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The dual pressure of trade threats and geopolitical demands is straining the already fragile US-China relationship.
Kevin Warsh Faces 'Perfect Storm' as He Waits to Take Fed Chair Role
Federal Reserve chair-designate Kevin Warsh faces a daunting economic landscape as he prepares to take over, with inflation running hot due to the Iran oil shock and the labor market showing signs of stress. The incoming chair faces a classic stagflation dilemma: raising rates risks recession, but cutting them could let inflation spiral further. Traders currently see little chance of any rate cut in 2026 following the Fed's latest signals.
Oil Shock and Inflation Fears Rattle Markets as Fed Signals No Rate Cuts
Traders now see little chance of an interest rate cut in 2026 after the Federal Reserve's latest meeting struck an optimistic tone on the economy, even as wholesale prices surged 0.7% in February and GDP was revised down to just 0.7% growth. The Iran war oil shock has stoked comparisons to 1970s-style stagflation, with gas prices hitting 21-month highs. The European Central Bank also held rates steady, warning the outlook is 'significantly more uncertain.'
US Deficit Tops $1 Trillion Through February, Below Last Year's Pace
The US federal deficit hit $1.004 trillion through the first five months of the fiscal year, about 12% lower than the comparable period in fiscal 2025. Despite the relative improvement, the trajectory remains a concern as rising military spending tied to the Iran conflict and energy costs put pressure on the budget. Treasury Secretary Bessent has also ruled out any intervention in oil commodity markets to ease prices.